A New Era of Instability and the Asset Built to Endure It

In an age of uncertainty, housing remains the one constant.

If you’ve been following our insights for a while, you’ll know we’ve been talking about what’s coming next, not just in the property market, but in the world around us. Because, like it or not, the two are deeply connected.

From rising geopolitical tensions to conflicting economic forecasts, it’s becoming increasingly clear that volatility isn’t going away any time soon.

At Investor Property, we’ve been talking about this shift for some time, just as we did before the current housing shortage, rental crisis, and market response to shocks like COVID became headline news. Our commentary consistently looks well ahead of the curve, and time and again, the data and broader conversation eventually catch up.

While many are only now discussing the potential for global conflict and economic realignment, these are themes we’ve been tracking closely for years. Keep in mind that our CEO and head of research, Mal Cayley, is a former military intelligence officer whose insight has led to more than 15 years of accurate predictions. Here in the office, we get to hear of so many of his thoughts that we don’t publish, which only cements the accuracy of Mal’s understanding and projections. We don’t always want them to be right, but what they do provide is the ability to prepare and respond.

While some feel extreme and impossible (like his prediction from as early as 2010 of the housing crisis occurring in the mid-2020s), some of his more ‘radical’ thoughts, like another global conflict in our lifetime, actually seem easier to accept with the rapidly changing nature and instability of geopolitics. As one avid property commentator,  Michael Matusik, recently wrote that “a war is coming” and while we might not agree with his entire view, the signals are clear: global alliances are shifting, supply chains remain fragile, and inflation pressures are proving more persistent than policymakers expected.

At the same time, financial headlines are divided. Some economists are predicting up to three interest rate cuts in 2025, while others warn the opposite, that rates could rise again if inflation continues to creep upward. For investors, it’s a noisy landscape.

But amid all this uncertainty, now and into the future, one thing remains clear: housing continues to represent both safety and stability.

Not just as a roof over your head,  though that’s never been more important, but as a tangible, reliable asset. When fear rises, capital seeks shelter. And for Australians, that shelter has always been in bricks and mortar.

History shows that in times of conflict, instability, or inflation, property outperforms many other asset classes. People prioritise security. They move to safer regions. They invest in something real. And that’s exactly what we’re seeing now: more volatility globally, and more people turning toward housing as a safe haven. When the world is confusing, we like assets we can touch.

A Sneak Peek: From 30 Years of Peace to Global Uncertainty

Off the back of our earlier discussions, our soon-to-be-released annual comprehensive market research report will go deeper than ever before, tracing the historical, economic, and political forces that have shaped the world we live in and the housing market we depend on, and then look into the near, medium and long-term future of property. For those of us who have had the opportunity to read it, we are describing it as the most comprehensive overview of the property market and housing crisis to date. It’s a thesis exposing realities and offering solutions, yet it is provided in such a consumable format that everyone with any interest or understanding of property in Australia will devour it, love it, and know how to respond. Personally, corporately, collectively.

And here is a little insight into Mal’s mind and a graph he discussed with the team early this year (and to be included in the upcoming report).

Between 1991 and 2021, the world enjoyed an unprecedented period of global cooperation, low inflation, and sustained growth. It is our supposition (noting our long-term trend for accuracy) that after the most peaceful time in human civilisation, this ‘stability’ quietly sowed the seeds for today’s crises. The systems built during those decades, including Australia’s own economic structures like compulsory superannuation, inflation-targeting monetary policy, and financial regulation, were intended, but not designed for the volatility ahead of us. And now, as global certainty fractures, those systems are being tested for the first time.

We’re living through the end of what economists dubbed The Great Moderation, and the beginning of a far less predictable age, one defined by conflict, inflation, misinformation, and fractured policy.

This new report goes beyond the headlines. It connects the dots between global events, government decisions, and housing outcomes, showing how decades of economic rationalism, regulatory missteps, and political short-termism have contributed to the crisis we’re now facing.

But here’s the part that matters most for investors: our analysis shows that housing continues to thrive in the face of uncertainty.

When inflation rises, when populations shift, and when instability shakes confidence in other assets, people turn to what’s tangible. Demand for shelter doesn’t disappear; it intensifies.

The fundamentals haven’t changed. Australia’s population is growing faster than new housing can be delivered. Construction costs are high, rental vacancies are at record lows, and demand for quality dwellings is unrelenting. Even as global conditions fluctuate, those underlying drivers create a floor beneath the housing market, and history shows that’s when the best opportunities emerge.

Keep in mind, with increasing global instability, that Australia is already where more millionaires migrate than any other country in the world. We are isolated, stable, full of resources, and safe. Demand will increase, not decrease, as the world becomes less predictable and stable.

In our upcoming report, we’ll share the data behind this graph above, along with the proof and trends that show why property continues to outperform in volatile times.

The report is bold, evidence-based, and unapologetically honest. It’s a powerful body of work that reveals not just what has gone wrong, but why, and where the real opportunities lie.

The report is coming soon, and it’s going to change the way you see the market, the economy, and your place within it.

Because while the world debates what might happen next, we’re focused on what you can do about it. All risk comes from a lack of knowledge.

In a world of uncertainty, clarity is your greatest advantage. From the macro to the micro of your own personal strategy, we’ve got you. And we’re not going anywhere.