The Real Opportunity Inside Australia’s #1 Regional Market

This week, the Commonwealth Bank released its latest Regional Movers Index… and once again, the Sunshine Coast ranked #1 in the country.

That headline alone is enough to get attention.

But the real story isn’t just that the Sunshine Coast is leading the nation… It’s where the opportunity actually sits within that growth, and why most people are looking in the wrong place.

Because while the headlines focus on rising prices and increased demand, the underlying data tells a much more nuanced story.

And that’s where the real opportunity lies.

The Median Price Myth

One of the most common arguments we hear is: “The median price on the Sunshine Coast is already higher than other regional centres… it can’t keep rising.”

The problem?

Medians are one of the most misleading metrics in property.

They don’t tell you:

• What’s happening at the bottom of the market
• Where demand is actually concentrated
• What types of properties are in short supply

They simply average everything together… and in a market undergoing transformation, that becomes almost meaningless.

This is why we’ve been unpacking the data differently in our upcoming research piece The Clarity Report. Instead of medians, we look at quintiles. And what that shows is a very different story.

The Real Story: The Bottom of the Market is Exploding

When you break the Sunshine Coast market into segments, one thing becomes very clear:

👉 The strongest pressure is at the entry-level and mid-market.

This is where:

• The highest demand sits
• The biggest supply shortage exists
• The most competition is happening

And importantly… There is simply not enough of the “right type” of homes.

So what are buyers doing? They’re not buying what they want. They’re buying what they can.

We’re seeing:

• Compromises on product
• Renovations and knockdown rebuilds
• Increased density and infill

This Isn’t a Retirement Market Anymore

Another outdated assumption is that the Sunshine Coast is driven by retirees.

That may have been true once. It’s not now.

What we’re seeing is a demographic metamorphosis. The Sunshine Coast is now being driven by millennials and working-age buyers. In fact, it’s one of the only regional markets in Australia with a strong Gen X presence at peak earning years.

And that matters.

Because: Real wealth is created before retirement.

These are not people downsizing. They are:

• Upsizing
• Investing
• Building businesses
• Creating long-term demand

The Income Shift No One’s Talking About

The Regional Movers Index tells us where people are coming from. But it doesn’t fully explain who or what they are bringing with them. Because this isn’t just a population shift. It’s an income shift.

People relocating from capital cities are increasingly:

• Bringing their jobs with them
• Running businesses remotely
• Earning metropolitan-level incomes in a regional market

At the same time, the Sunshine Coast has seen:

• Strong employment growth
• Increasing business activity
• Rising local earning capacity

And then there’s the layer most data misses entirely… A significant proportion of:

• Self-funded retirees
• Business owners
• Self-employed individuals

This group has helped shape the Sunshine Coast to become the entrepreneurial capital of Australia as Bernard Salt often says… and they often structure income differently, meaning traditional income data underestimates their real spending power.

So the more accurate lens isn’t just income… It’s disposable income. And that continues to rise on the Sunshine Coast.

The Supply Problem Isn’t Going Away

Now layer that demand over supply. Over the past six years, when you compare: new lots created vs new people moving to the region, the market has been undersupplied by ~46% per annum.

That’s not a short-term imbalance. That’s structural. And it explains why:

• People are competing harder
• Prices continue to move
• Buyers are compromising

Because again…People still need somewhere to live.

“But Prices Can’t Keep Rising…”

We hear this a lot.Usually when:

• Headlines get noisy
• Interest rates are uncertain
• Global events create fear

Right now it’s:

• War
• Inflation
• Fuel prices
• Cost of living

And yes, these things matter. But they don’t change the fundamentals. History shows us this clearly:

• 70s oil crisis → 80s boom
• 90s recession → early 2000s growth
• GFC → one of the strongest property runs in history
• COVID → same pattern again

Money doesn’t disappear in times of uncertainty. It moves.

And consistently, it moves toward:

• Real assets.

• Scarce assets.

• Essential assets.

Property sits at the centre of all three.

The Bigger Risk Isn’t the Market

It’s easy to look externally and feel uncertain.

But the bigger risk isn’t:

• Interest rates
• Construction costs
• Global instability

The biggest risk is reactive decision-making.

Pausing.

Waiting.

Trying to time the market.

Because strategy doesn’t work like that.

Strategy is deliberate, not reactive.

It’s dynamic, not static.

No one can predict the future with certainty.

But we do have:

• Long-term data
• Proven patterns
• A track record of how markets behave

Even through:

• COVID
• Rate cycles
• Global shocks

The evidence continues to point in one direction.

The Opportunity Most People Are Missing

If you rely on medians, you’ll think the Sunshine Coast is expensive and slowing.

If you look deeper, you’ll see:

• A shifting demographic
• Rising disposable income
• Structural undersupply
• Explosive demand at the right end of the market

And that’s where the real opportunity sits.

Not in the averages, but in the detail.

If you want to understand how this applies to your situation and where the opportunities actually are, speak to your Property Coach.

Because in a market like this, clarity beats commentary every time.