The Silent Forces Shaping the Next Property Cycle

Some of the most powerful trends influencing the property market in 2025 aren’t grabbing headlines, but they’re shifting the entire investment landscape. As we continue our research for the upcoming Sunshine Coast Property Market Update, it’s clear that major policy decisions, evolving financial structures, and hidden demand drivers are setting the stage for what comes next. Here’s what smart investors need to know now.

1. First Homebuyer Guarantee Scheme Will Drive a Price Surge

In January 2026, the First Homebuyer Guarantee Scheme will re-enter the market, enabling up to 80,000 first-time buyers to purchase with as little as a 5% deposit and no LMI.

That’s not just a policy win, it’s a market force. These buyers will flood the sub-$1 million segment, pushing prices up by an estimated 8–15% across that range. In already hot markets like the Sunshine Coast, where supply is tight and demand is surging, this will only accelerate the upward pressure.

“Policies like this don’t just support buyers, they inflate the playing field. Investors who act before the crowd moves are best placed to benefit,” says Mal Cayley.

He also adds (in obvious frustration), “keep in mind the only thing this scheme ‘guarantees’ is price rises. Give them all the money you like, but the question still remains, what are they going to buy? … it is negligence by the government to inflate demand without providing supply. You can’t treat a supply side problem with demand side solutions!”

We couldn’t agree more!

2. SMSF Borrowing Is Under the Microscope

Superannuation tax reform proposals are putting SMSF borrowing under pressure, with changes that could limit investors’ ability to use their super for property purchases.

For now, SMSFs remain a powerful and legal structure for property investment, but the window may not stay open forever. Investors who move early can lock in advantages that future investors may lose access to. And, as always, structuring your SMSF strategy with the right expert team – property strategist, accountant, and financial planner – is critical.

“…timing is always important, and never more so in SMSF… We created Optiwise Wealth Advisory for this very reason so that the right support and advice is there with an expert property team for those who need it,” says Mal.

3. Build-to-Rent is Rising, But Not Solving the Problem

The Build-to-Rent (BTR) sector is getting attention from state governments, institutional investors, and developers. It’s being pitched as a solution to the rental crisis, but its real-world impact is limited, especially in regional areas.

Why? Because BTR requires big capital, slow delivery, and dense urban centres to succeed. It does little for markets like the Sunshine Coast, where the need is for medium-density, flexible, and fast housing types, not 200-unit towers.

Worse still, the entire government effort is narrowly focused on ‘affordable’ (that is, social) housing. They’re scrambling to compensate for 30 years of neglect and failure by successive governments to deliver enough housing. But in its current form, this is no real solution.

“Build-to-Rent is part of the picture, but it is many, many years from even starting to help to alleviate the pressure of the current crisis,” says Mal.

4. Government Policies Alone Won’t Fix the Crisis

Whether it’s the 1.2 million homes pledge or the $10 billion Housing Australia Future Fund, governments are promising big supply-side shifts. But the real story is in the execution.

Labour shortages, red tape, slow planning systems, and rising construction costs are keeping housing delivery well below target. Even the best-intentioned initiatives will take years to materialise, and many will fall short.

That’s why private residential property investors remain essential. They’re providing 97% of rental housing, and filling the gaps policy can’t touch. And they’re doing it now, not in five or ten years.

“It’s investors creating the real supply in today’s market. And in doing so, they’re not only meeting critical demand, they’re also putting themselves in the strongest position to benefit from rising rents, capital growth, and long-term market resilience,” Mal explains.

The Investor Property View

There’s a lot going on beneath the surface of the 2025 market. Between policy changes, tax reforms, and hidden drivers of demand, the opportunity lies in staying ahead, not chasing the herd. That’s why our team continuously monitors the macro shifts, policy moves and demographic flows that matter.

Want to take advantage of what’s happening behind the headlines?
Now’s the time to review or build your strategy with the Investor Property team. With over a decade of accurate market calls and the next wave of Sunshine Coast data already underway, we’ll help you make your next move with confidence and clarity. Connect with us.