Why Sensational Headlines Don’t Tell the Real Property Story

Recently, we’ve seen headlines declaring that investors are “flooding back” or that spring sales are “booming across Australia.” They’re attention-grabbing, but they rarely reflect the deeper trends shaping the market.

That’s because many of these stories rely on surface-level numbers like monthly spikes, seasonal quirks, or single-metric increases, without looking at the context that actually tells us what’s really happening.

At Investor Property, we don’t assess markets by headlines.

We follow the data that matters.

Investor lending is rising – but the story is more complex than ‘flooding back’

Yes, investor lending has increased strongly in the latest ABS data. The number and value of new investor loans are at record highs, and investors now make up roughly 40% of all new home loans, compared with a more typical level of around one-third over past cycles. 

That sounds like a “surge”, and in a narrow, quarter-to-quarter sense, it is. But it doesn’t mean we’ve suddenly overshot, or the rental market fix is coming.

For several years after APRA’s mid-2010s interventions and during COVID, investor activity fell well below those long-run norms, while population growth and rental demand kept marching on. First-home buyers and owner-occupiers dominated new lending, and investors simply didn’t replace the stock needed to keep up with demand.

So today’s stronger investor numbers are really catching up on a long period of under-investment, not a new speculative wave on top of a healthy base. This is a really important point to note: in 2015, APRA over-reached based on median prices and investor lending highs to put in place measures that have heavily contributed to the housing crisis. Effectively punishing 100% of the market by cementing long-term structural changes from the intent to punish 20% of the market short term. Correctly understanding data, what is measured and how, and causeology matters.

It’s also important to separate volume from dollars. Total investor lending has risen not only because there are more loans, but because average loan sizes have increased, reflecting higher prices and expectations of improved borrowing capacity. Owner-occupier loan numbers, by contrast, have only inched higher.

In other words, a bigger dollar figure doesn’t automatically mean a flood of new investors. And even with today’s higher share, the market still hasn’t made up for the years where investors were largely sitting on the sidelines while new dwelling approvals fell to multi-year lows

Spring buying ‘booms’? Another example of headline vs. reality

The ABC recently questioned the narrative of a “big spring surge,” showing that seasonal trends vary dramatically from region to region.

This is exactly why single-story data can mislead.

Australia doesn’t operate as one homogenous market.

Different regions experience different pressures, supply levels, buyer types, and timing cycles.

That’s why we analyse:

• who is buying and why
• whether finance trends actually support the headline
• how supply is tracking
• where demand is genuinely building, and for the right reasons

Seasonality doesn’t create a boom. Underlying fundamentals do.

The opportunity is in understanding what comes next

Population growth, migration, household formation and lifestyle shifts continue to drive housing demand higher.

At the same time, new supply is falling sharply.

Combine that with strong market confidence in future interest rate cuts, and we’re approaching the point where:

• borrowing capacity will increase
• owner-occupiers will come back fast
• investors will re-enter in greater numbers
• competition will rise
• and prices will respond accordingly

Those who secure the right property now, before the broader market returns, position themselves ahead of that shift.

The bottom line

Headlines are designed for impact.

We’re interested in what the data actually says.

And the data shows this:

Investor lending is improving, but in real terms of what is needed, it remains low.

Seasonal trends make good stories, but they don’t tell the full picture.

Demand is rising, supply is constrained, and pressure continues to build.

For strategic investors, that combination creates one of the strongest forward-looking market setups we’ve seen. So don’t wait to see what happens next because not only are prices increasing, but so is your competition. We suggest you pick up the phone to your property coach today.